Russia, meanwhile, at this early point in the 21st century, looks to be in the winning stakes, with Vladimir Putin clearly determined to promote Russia as a global power. This is the man who in 2005 famously called the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991: “The biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” Having eclipsed most other local competitors for power (remember Dmitry Medvedev?) and other rivals having sought safety abroad or ended up in prison, and given his swift intervention in Ukraine, annexation of Crimea and bombing of Syrian anti-government rebels, Putin has made no secret of his determination to reassert Russian power after years of perceived humiliation by the US and its NATO allies. The question is how will he use this year of 2017, the centenary of the Russian Revolution, to continue expanding Russian influence in the world.
Important as Donald Trump’s relations with Russia are, the fact is he has certain blindspots, and one of them is China. Right now as things stand China looks very much like being the claimant to the 21st century. With its numbers, the demands of its economy, its growing international status through peaceful expansion of its influence (building schools, hospitals and railroads in Africa, for example), it’s stable relations with Taiwan, and its tacit but real responsibility for ensuring North Korea’s good behaviour – something enormously appreciated by countries like Japan and South Korea but also the US – China must be in the winning stakes. Although India has a faster growing population and is technologically much more advanced than China (a lot of the skills in Silicon Valley are provided by Indians), the fact is that the Indian economy is administratively hamstrung and simply incapable of achieving its potential.
What about the so-called developing world, of which South Africa is part? Ours is a continent with the fastest growing population in the world, and therefore 54 distinct economies laden with opportunities but also fraught with challenges. We are also rich in commodities, although much up-to-the-minute technology relies increasingly less on the sort of commodities we have. However, measured in terms of human and social development, the culture of corruption, and the uncertainty of many African political systems, Africa would have to be rated an extreme outsider in the 21st Century stakes.
A last thought. In the final analysis who wins may be the leader and the country, or the institution which successfully combats the scourge of terrorism sweeping the globe.